Tony Dungy owes me $201

Like many other people, I participated in a Super Bowl squares pool this year. In fact, I was responsible for organizing it. In previous years I charged $1 per square. The trouble is that some people want to wager $5, $10, or even $20. And there is not much excitement when a few people have most of the squares. I know last year we ended up having 3 different pools, all with $1 squares. Inevitably, some people ended up buying more squares than they wanted, in an effort to complete the grids.

To avoid that this year, I made the executive decision that squares cost $5. Well, the first day or so all the real gamblers bought squares. Most bought about 2, with some purchasing 4. The trouble is by Friday afternoon we were stuck around 60 squares. I did a lap around the office and was able to get about 28 more purchased. The Ben and I pretty much bought the rest. I think together we were responsible for about 23 squares. Anyways, we were able to draw numbers before anyone left work so everyone was happy.

Sometimes I hate being the person in charge of these types of things. I think that over 75% of the people made the same two comments to me. They picked a square, and as they handed over the money they either "so, how much are you taking" or "i want your numbers." Now I know that nobody said this seriously. Every person said it as a joke. The thing is on the humor scale this joke is a zero. It is not funny. And I guess I just got sick of hearing it. I didn't enjoy spending 2+ hours on Friday struggling to get it filled out. Nor did i enjoy buying 3 times as many squares as I wanted to. Not to mention its simple math. There are 100 squares at $5 apiece. That's $500 in prizes. It said on the grid that the payouts were $100 for each of the first three quarters and $200 for the final score. That equals $500. Where would my cut come from? And 62% of the office was crowded around my desk while someone other than I drew the numbers. So there is no funny business happening there. I know I am taking this a bit too seriously, I am just venting because I was annoyed.

Needless to say I was lucky enough to win the third quarter, so I guess it was worth it. The total prize pool was a dollar short though. One entrant dropped by my desk with a stack of money. They had purchased 5 squares and paid using a variety of bills. I accepted the payment, but was working on something and did not bother to count it. As the person was leaving they requested that I count it to make sure it was all there. I think they counted if quickly and like I said, it wasn't a 20 and a 5. It was a bunch of smaller bills including some 1's. Wanting to get back to work, I fake counted it. I sort of fanned it out in my hands like a deck of cards and nodded. Later in the day I really did count it, and it was a dollar short.

Then I began thinking... was this a test? Did the guy know he was giving me $24 but wanted to see if I would catch it? It is possible that he was going to try and get away with it but felt guilty so he suggested I count it. Then when I made the mistake he felt like he was in the clear. I do not think this is what happened. The guy is an honest guy and I think he wanted me to count it because he may not have. Or he did but wasn't confident in his count. In any case, it was over 2 hours later when I realized. And I had 'counted' it in front of him. How could I go back to him now and say "oh, by the way, remember when I counted it right in front of you... yeah well you are a dollar short."

After winning the third quarter I was pretty happy, but I was in great shape to win the final score also. I had Colts 2 and bears 7. Then Vinatieri did the unthinkable and missed that FG to dagger my chances. But then I thought I was in position again, as the Colts drove down the field with 4 minutes left. All I needed was the Colts to score 3 more points and I won $200 more. They got into FG range and then went for it on 4th down. They were up by 12 points, and they didn't take the chip shot FG. I understand there is some risk in the FG, and that after the FG you would have to kick off to the Bears. But you would also be up by 15 points. You would be assured that you weren't going to lose in regulation. The Bears would need to score twice in under 2 minutes and get the 2 pt conversion on the second score. Instead Dungy opted to turn the ball over on downs and sit on his 12 point lead.

I cant blame Dungy for doing this, but I would have kicked the FG. Despite the early mishap on the extra point, I think the chances of making that kick were over 80%. I understand the counter argument, but I think the chances of the Bears scoring twice in either situation is slim. And so for me, if there is a 2% chance they score twice after a FG and a 1.9% chance they score twice without the FG, I would take the FG because at least those 2% of the time you don't lose. Without the FG, if they gave up two scores they lose. Period.

I think the real reason Dungy didn't kick the FG is the same reason Bill Joel strolled through the national anthem- he had the under (surprise the line was 47 points)

Oh yeah, and guess who won the final score square? The $24 guy...